Research Sponsors

Anthony Howell

Anthony Howell

Associate Professor, Public Policy & Management | Director, Center on Technology, Data, and Society | Editor Annals of the AAG (Geographic Methods)

Arizona State University

Dr. Howell is the Director of the Center on Technology, Data, and Society, an Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the School of Public Affairs at ASU, and Editor for Geographic Methods at the Annals of the American Association of Geographers. He is an affiliate faculty member in the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning and a senior sustainability scientist in the School of Global Futures. Prior to ASU, Dr. Howell served as an Associate Professor of Applied Microeconomics in the School of Economics at Peking University, China's flagship university. He also previously held several visiting positions as a Fulbright scholar at the Lincoln Institute of Urban Development and Land Policy (Beijing), a Science & Technology policy fellow at the National Academies of Sciences (Washington D.C.), and a research fellow at the Asian Development Bank (Manila). Dr. Howell holds a PhD in Geography (UCLA), M.S. degrees in Statistics (UCLA) and GIScience (MSU), and B.A degrees in Political Science, International Development, and Chinese Language and Culture (MSU).

Interests
  • Economic Development
  • Place-Based Policy
  • Industrial Policy & Firm Innovation
  • Migration & Labor Market Analysis
  • Cash Transfers
  • Computational Social Science
  • Large Language Models
  • Geospatial Analysis
  • Quasi-Experimental Design
  • China Economy
Education

    Research Overview

    Dr. Howell's research sits at the intersection of generative AI, policy, governance, and computational social science, with broader expertise in economic development, public policy evaluation, innovation, and technological change. His portfolio includes more than 35 peer-reviewed articles in leading journals (Nature Human Behaviour, Annals of the AAG, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Urban Economics, Journal of Economic Geography, Energy Economics, Research Policy). He has secured nearly $1 million in external funding from the private sector and government agencies in the U.S. (National Science Foundation; Department of State), South Korea (National Research Foundation), and China (National Natural Science Foundation). His work combines causal inference and other advanced quantitative methods, computational social science, along with field-based research and survey design to examine how technology, policy, and institutions shape economic and social outcomes. He has carried out several household and business surveys across multiple cities, bringing extensive field experience to his comparative, data-driven, and policy-oriented scholarship.

    Research Themes

    Generative AI & Computational Social Science

    GPT-4o street view poverty mapping
    GPT-4o recovers poverty and tree canopy with census-benchmark accuracy; captures legacy effects of redlining · npj Urban Sust. 2026
    LLM prestige bias in peer review
    LLMs reproduce prestige bias in peer review · Scientific Reports (R&R)

    Dr. Howell's most recent research applies large language models and multimodal LLMs both as policy-grade measurement instruments and as objects of study in their own right. His forthcoming paper in npj Urban Sustainability demonstrates that GPT-4o, deployed on Google Street View imagery, recovers neighborhood poverty with census-benchmark accuracy and reproduces the causal legacy of 1930s redlining, outperforming conventional pixel-based segmentation baselines (Howell et al., 2026). This work establishes a proof-of-concept for MLLM-powered urban policy intelligence in settings where administrative data are absent, delayed, or prohibitively expensive to collect. In other research under revision at Scientific Reports, he audits LLMs for institutional bias, finding that simulated peer reviewers assign systematically higher rejection risk to identical manuscripts from lower-ranked institutions — a prestige penalty that persists after controlling for manuscript quality. Additional projects examine how political framing shapes LLM assessments of equity in municipal climate action plans (National Research Foundation of South Korea), and explore whether multi-agent LLM workflows can support public agency equity assessments at scale.

    Economic Development & Place-Based Policy

    Ecosystem payments and household income
    Scaling back ecosystem payments reduces rural incomes · Nature Human Behaviour 2022
    Carbon tax and ethnic emissions inequality
    Carbon tax regressive in urban China · Annals of the AAG 2024

    Dr. Howell's research on place-based policy spans the full policy lifecycle. His work on China's Economic and Development Zones documents heterogeneous but real productivity gains of 18–30% for incumbent firms while separating agglomeration economies from selection effects (Howell, 2019; 2020; Howell et al., 2023). A paper under revision at Regional Science and Urban Economics provides the first natural experiment on agglomeration disruption, showing that premature zone termination reduces firm patenting and export competitiveness. Using China's 2009–10 stimulus as a natural experiment, he further shows that suspending matching mandates crowds in local investment and spurs return migrant entrepreneurship, while penalizing fiscally constrained localities (Howell, 2024). His Nature Human Behaviour paper provides the first causal evidence on policy retrenchment, documenting that scaling back an ecosystem payments program blocks farm-to-nonfarm transitions, with adverse effects concentrated where land rights and job training are weakest (Howell, 2022).

    Industrial Policy & Firm Innovation

    Patent citation networks
    Patent citation networks & knowledge spillovers · Regional Studies 2020

    Dr. Howell's research on industrial policy and firm competitiveness draws on a decade of work examining how policy environments, market structure, and knowledge geography shape innovation outcomes. Foundational papers establish that cautious innovators survive longer and generate greater efficiency gains (Howell, 2015), that corporate tax reform spurs commercialization but fails to raise R&D investment (Howell, 2016), and that co-located related firms outperform on survival and productivity through all three Marshallian channels (Howell, 2017). Subsequent work shows that FDI liberalization amplifies relatedness spillovers into indigenous innovation (Howell, 2019), that absorptive capacity mediates agglomeration gains (Howell, 2019), that outward FDI generates positive knowledge feedback into domestic innovation (Howell et al., 2020), and that state R&D subsidies accelerate technological upgrading with heterogeneous effects across firm type (Boeing, Eberle and Howell, 2021). Market-oriented reforms amplify recombinant innovation while industrial support dampens agglomeration benefits for co-located competitors (Howell et al., 2022; 2023). A paper under revision at Strategic Management Journal with Prud'homme and collaborators examines how a supranational intellectual property institution reform reshapes firm innovation and commercialization globally.

    Social Policy, Labor & Income Disparities

    Minimum wages and ethnic wage gap
    Minimum wages compress Han-minority wage gap · J. Urban Economics 2020
    Cash transfers and migration
    Cash transfers raise migration among ethnic minorities · J. Economic Geography 2022

    Starting with in-depth fieldwork in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, northwest China, Dr. Howell's social policy research has, for nearly 20 years, examined how labor markets and institutions distribute economic opportunities and hardships unevenly across geography, ethnicity, and socioeconomic groups. His early studies were among the first in the China context to document major ethnic disparities in income, self-employment, and labor mobility, including Han-Uyghur wage and self-employment gaps unexplained by human capital (Howell and Fan, 2011; Howell, 2011), financing barriers facing ethnic minority entrepreneurs (Howell, 2018), and lower returns to migration among minority households (Howell, 2017). Building on these foundational findings, his later work evaluates policies aimed at reducing inequality, showing that minimum wages compress the Han-minority wage gap and reduce the urban Gini by 10–12% (Howell, 2020), while Dibao cash transfers increase migration among poor minority households (Howell, 2022) and narrow the first-documented ethnic energy poverty gap through a fuel-stacking mechanism (Howell, 2025).

    Teaching

    Dr. Howell teaches courses in applied statistics, quantitative methods, causal inference, computational social science, and program evaluation at the doctoral, master's, and undergraduate levels in the School of Public Affairs at ASU. Over his faculty career, he has taught nearly 1,000 students. At ASU, he has taught five courses, building multiple courses from scratch.

    CourseLevelDescription
    PAF 609DoctoralAdvanced Quantitative Methods
    PAF 510MastersFoundations of Program Evaluation I
    PAF 502MastersPublic Service Research II
    PAF 516 / CPP 529MastersCommunity Analytics
    PAF 301UndergraduateApplied Statistics

    Teaching Awards: Professor of Impact Award (ASU, 2023)  ·  2nd Place Teaching Prize (Peking University, 2014)

    View full teaching portfolio →

    Open Source Projects

    entitymatch

    Open-source Python package for probabilistic entity matching and record linkage, published to PyPI. Supports fuzzy matching across large datasets for use in administrative data integration and policy research.

    PyPI  |  GitHub


    Community Analytics Dashboard

    Interactive Quarto dashboard built for PAF 516, featuring multi-scale maps, LISA hot spot analysis, temporal change visualization, and a Sankey mobility chart for the Phoenix metro area. Fully reproducible R/Quarto workflow, publicly available on GitHub Pages.

    Live Dashboard  |  Course Website

    Photo Ops

    Meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, School of Economics, Peking University

    Teaching an executive development program for public managers in the Chongqing government

    Delivering the PhD graduation commencement speech, School of Economics, Peking University

    China Fulbright: Farm work with Peking University students

    Meeting with President Bill Clinton as recipient of the Young Fellowship Award

    Survey research team, Xinjiang University

    Interviewing Han rural-urban migrants in Urumqi

    Interviewing Uyghur restaurant owner in Urumqi

    Interviewing small-scale farmers at a Kashgar border market

    Interviewing Uyghurs in tourist industry, outside of Kashgar

    Early Life

    Early Life:: Born in Los Angeles, Anthony's origins story is marked by early childhood challenges such as poverty, homelessness, foster care, and the repercussions of parental incarceration and untimely death. After transitioning through six different households and guardians across Los Angeles, Jersey City, and Detroit, Anthony moved to Lansing and was adopted by age 10 by his working-class relatives. Starting formal work at 14, Anthony balanced part-time jobs with school and spent summers working full-time at a GM assembly plant, performing tasks like conveyor belt work and cleaning rust off car parts. As his factory and others shuttered, Anthony observed firsthand the devastating consequences of regional economic decline, manifested by urban decay, unemployment, drugs and crime. In retrospect, it's evident that the roots of Anthony's research aspirations and inspirations are deeply entrenched in his early lived experiences, which nurtured an innate intellectual curiosity about issues related to employment, entrepreneurship, ethnicity, poverty, inequality, and local economic development.

    Getting into MSU: Despite these early life challenges, Anthony’s determination led him to initially enroll at a local community college before earning admission to MSU. As a first-generation college student, he found mentorship and a supportive peer community that broadened his perspective and ignited his passion for learning and service. Transitioning from factory and janitorial jobs, Anthony took on roles at a soup kitchen and the Refugee Development Center in Lansing. By senior year, he had raised his GPA from 2.1 to 3.5 and was hired as the lead instructor for a freshman service-learning course. His time at MSU equipped him with intellectual tools to reconcile his past and use adversity as a driving force for growth, inspiring a life-long commitment to public policy and research.

    International Experience

    International Service: Driven in part by a desire to escape his socioeconomic and geographical constraints, Anthony developed a strong interest at MSU to contribute to global community development. Through luck and determination, Anthony secured scholarships that allowed him to volunteer, research and live abroad, accruing unique real-world experiences that greatly enhanced his traditional academic studies. His global service projects spanned volunteering at a local economic development office in rural Ireland and multiple NGOs operating in impoverished neighborhoods in southern and central Mexico.

    International Fieldwork: Anthony began his research career as an undergraduate student at MSU. He obtained a research grant to visit the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. In that capacity, Anthony designed and implemented his first survey instrument at a migrant skills-enhancement facility. The goal of the project was to understand to what extent the acquisition of new technical skills reduced employment barriers among Beijing’s informal migrant population.

    For his Master’s thesis at MSU, Anthony combined several grants to conduct in-depth fieldwork in Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, one of China’s most restive and difficult to access regions. Informed by a mixed-methods design, Anthony identified local contacts, trained local enumerators, and designed a statistical sampling design representative of urban service establishments in Urumqi and Kashgar, collecting nearly 2,000 surveys of Han, Hui, and Uyghur respondents. Analyzing the business survey data, his research findings were among the first to shed light on ethnic-based disparities in wages, self-employment, and mobility in the Chinese context.

    UCLA and China Fulbright Experience: After being selected for UCLA Chancelor’s Prize to top PhD applicants, Anthony was admitted by UCLA into the top-ranked Geography department. Anthony received multiple nationally competitive fellowships, including being awarded a China Fulbright Award to conduct dissertation research on China’s competitiveness policy, innovation and entrepreneurship. During this period, he gained access to proprietary rich firm-level data. Harnessing his linguistic and statistical expertise, Anthony constructed measures of local industrial targeting initiatives by scraping public information from Chinese municipality websites. He integrated these measures with the firm-level data to investigate the implications of industrial policy on firm performance. In the later stage of his Fulbright, Anthony also was invited to participate in the China Household Ethnic Survey project (CHES), a significant initiative gathering a select group of international experts to join Chinese counterparts to collect and analyze the country’s first and only representative micro-data on China’s ethnic minority groups.



    Peking University: The indelible impact of Anthony’s tenure as a faculty member at Peking University catalyzed a decade-long research agenda on China’s competitiveness policy, firm innovation, productivity, and internationalization. During his tenure, he won multiple teaching and research awards, including from the prestigious National Science Foundation of China. Capitalizing on PKU’s proximity to Zhongguancun — often referred to as China’s “Silicon Valley” — Anthony immersed himself in Beijing’s tech ecosystem. Through his position at PKU, he secured co-working space in Garage Cafe, a publicly-funded incubator on Innovation Way, witnessing firsthand the transformation of the area into a policy-induced innovation hub. Anthony also served in an advisory role for a student-led start-up company, and collaborated with partners at the Ministry of Science and Technology on international projects that fostered exchanges between start-ups in Silicon Valley and Zhongguancun.