Research Sponsors

Anthony Howell

Anthony Howell

Associate Professor, Public Policy & Management | Director, Center on Technology, Data, and Society | Editor Annals of the AAG (Geographic Methods)

Arizona State University

Dr. Howell is the Director of the Center on Technology, Data, and Society, an Associate Professor of Public Policy and Management in the School of Public Affairs at ASU, and Editor for Geographic Methods at the Annals of the American Association of Geographers. He is an affiliate faculty member in the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning and a senior sustainability scientist in the School of Global Futures. Prior to ASU, Dr. Howell served as an Associate Professor in the School of Economics at Peking University, China's flagship university. He previously held several visiting positions as a Fulbright scholar at the Lincoln Institute of Urban Development and Land Policy in Beijing, a Science & Technology policy fellow at the National Academies of Sciences in Washington D.C., and a research fellow at the Asian Development Bank in Manila.

Expertise
  • Economic Geography
  • Sustainable Development
  • Place-Based & Industrial Policy
  • Innovation, R&D, and Technological Change
  • Firm Productivity and Export Competitiveness
  • Social Protection & Transfer Policy
  • Labor Markets, Migration & Inequality
  • China’s Economic Reforms and Economy
  • Computational Social Science & Causal Inference
Education

    Research Overview

    Dr. Howell's research portfolio, supported by nearly $1 million in external funding, includes more than 35 peer-reviewed articles in leading journals (Nature Human Behaviour, Annals of the AAG, J. of Development Economics, J. of Urban Economics, J. of Economic Geography, Energy Economics, and Research Policy). His research brings an international and comparative, multi-level perspective to the study of how workers, households, firms, and regions respond to policy and institutional change, technological transformation, and broader economic and environmental disruptions. His work examines why some people, organizations, and places benefit while others bear the costs of change, the conditions that foster or constrain innovation and regional economic dynamism, and the mechanisms that explain these uneven outcomes. He draws on a wide array of quantitative and computational social science methods, including causal inference, network analysis, geospatial methods, and machine learning, using experimental and quasi-experimental designs to generate policy-relevant, data-driven evidence across diverse institutional and geographic settings.

    Research Features

    Vision Language Models for Urban Policy Intelligence

    GPT-4o street view poverty mapping
    GPT-4o, deployed on Google Street View imagery, recovers neighborhood poverty with census-benchmark accuracy and reproduces the causal legacy of 1930s redlining, establishing a proof-of-concept for MLLM-powered urban policy intelligence where administrative data are absent or delayed · npj Urban Sust. 2026

    Audit of Large Language Models in the Peer Review Process

    LLM prestige bias in peer review
    A multi-role LLM simulation (editor/reviewer) evaluating high-quality manuscripts across the physical, biological, and social sciences under randomized author identities reveals a strong institutional-prestige bias: identical papers attributed to low-prestige affiliations face significantly higher rejection risk, despite only modest differences in LLM-assessed quality · Scientific Reports (R&R)

    Sustainable Development

    Carbon tax and ethnic emissions inequality
    Counterfactual policy analysis finds that the distributive effects of a carbon tax are regressive in urban areas but not in rural areas, increasing within and between ethnic group inequality in urban China. Revenue-neutral schemes help mitigate existing inequalities, reducing income- and ethnic-based forms of inequality · Annals of the AAG 2024

    Scaling Back Ecosystem Payments

    Scaling back ecosystem payments
    Among the first causal evidence on what happens when large-scale conservation programs are scaled back, documenting that reducing ecosystem payments blocks farm-to-nonfarm transitions, including rural-urban migration, with adverse effects concentrated in localities where land rights and access to job training are the weakest · Nature Human Behaviour 2022

    Research Themes

    Economic Development & Place-Based Policy

    Dr. Howell's research on place-based policy spans the full policy lifecycle. His work on China's Economic and Development Zones documents heterogeneous but real productivity gains of 18–30% for incumbent firms while separating agglomeration economies from selection effects (Howell, 2019; 2020; Howell et al., 2023). A paper under revision at Regional Science and Urban Economics provides the first natural experiment on agglomeration disruption, showing that premature zone termination reduces firm patenting and export competitiveness. Using China's 2009–10 stimulus as a natural experiment, he further shows that suspending matching mandates crowds in local investment and spurs return migrant entrepreneurship, while penalizing fiscally constrained localities (Howell, 2024). His Nature Human Behaviour paper provides the first causal evidence on policy retrenchment, documenting that scaling back an ecosystem payments program blocks farm-to-nonfarm transitions, with adverse effects concentrated where land rights and job training are weakest (Howell, 2022).

    Industrial Policy & Firm Innovation

    Dr. Howell's research on industrial policy and firm competitiveness draws on a decade of work examining how policy environments, market structure, and knowledge geography shape innovation outcomes. Foundational papers establish that cautious innovators survive longer and generate greater efficiency gains (Howell, 2015), that corporate tax reform spurs commercialization but fails to raise R&D investment (Howell, 2016), and that co-located related firms outperform on survival and productivity through all three Marshallian channels (Howell, 2017). Subsequent work shows that FDI liberalization amplifies relatedness spillovers into indigenous innovation (Howell, 2019), that absorptive capacity mediates agglomeration gains (Howell, 2019), that outward FDI generates positive knowledge feedback into domestic innovation (Howell et al., 2020), and that state R&D subsidies accelerate technological upgrading with heterogeneous effects across firm type (Boeing, Eberle and Howell, 2021). Market-oriented reforms amplify recombinant innovation while industrial support dampens agglomeration benefits for co-located competitors (Howell et al., 2022; 2023). A paper under revision at Strategic Management Journal with Prud'homme and collaborators examines how a supranational intellectual property institution reform reshapes firm innovation and commercialization globally.

    Social Policy, Labor & Income Disparities

    Starting with in-depth fieldwork in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, northwest China, Dr. Howell's social policy research has, for nearly 20 years, examined how labor markets and institutions distribute economic opportunities and hardships unevenly across geography, ethnicity, and socioeconomic groups. His early studies were among the first in the China context to document major ethnic disparities in income, self-employment, and labor mobility, including Han-Uyghur wage and self-employment gaps unexplained by human capital (Howell and Fan, 2011; Howell, 2011), financing barriers facing ethnic minority entrepreneurs (Howell, 2018), and lower returns to migration among minority households (Howell, 2017). Building on these foundational findings, his later work evaluates policies aimed at reducing inequality, showing that minimum wages compress the Han-minority wage gap and reduce the urban Gini by 10–12% (Howell, 2020), while Dibao cash transfers increase migration among poor minority households (Howell, 2022) and narrow the first-documented ethnic energy poverty gap through a fuel-stacking mechanism (Howell, 2025).

    Teaching

    Dr. Howell teaches courses in applied statistics, quantitative methods, causal inference, computational social science, and program evaluation at the doctoral, master's, and undergraduate levels in the School of Public Affairs at ASU. Over his faculty career, he has taught nearly 1,000 students. At ASU, he has taught five courses, building multiple courses from scratch.

    CourseLevelDescription
    PAF 609DoctoralAdvanced Quantitative Methods
    PAF 510MastersFoundations of Program Evaluation I
    PAF 502MastersPublic Service Research II
    PAF 516 / CPP 529MastersCommunity Analytics
    PAF 301UndergraduateApplied Statistics

    Teaching Awards: Professor of Impact Award (ASU, 2023)  ·  2nd Place Teaching Prize (Peking University, 2014)

    View full teaching portfolio →

    Open Source Projects

    entitymatch

    Open-source Python package for probabilistic entity matching and record linkage, published to PyPI. Supports fuzzy matching across large datasets for use in administrative data integration and policy research.

    PyPI  |  GitHub


    Community Analytics Dashboard

    Interactive Quarto dashboard built for PAF 516, featuring multi-scale maps, LISA hot spot analysis, temporal change visualization, and a Sankey mobility chart for the Phoenix metro area. Fully reproducible R/Quarto workflow, publicly available on GitHub Pages.

    Live Dashboard  |  Course Website

    Photo Ops

    Meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, School of Economics, Peking University

    Teaching an executive development program for public managers in the Chongqing government

    Delivering the PhD graduation commencement speech, School of Economics, Peking University

    China Fulbright: Farm work with Peking University students

    Meeting with President Bill Clinton as recipient of the Young Fellowship Award

    Survey research team, Xinjiang University

    Interviewing Han rural-urban migrants in Urumqi

    Interviewing Uyghur restaurant owner in Urumqi

    Interviewing small-scale farmers at a Kashgar border market

    Interviewing Uyghurs in tourist industry, outside of Kashgar

    Early Life

    Early Life: Born in Los Angeles, Anthony’s early life was marked by poverty, homelessness, foster care, and the repercussions of parental incarceration and untimely death. After transitioning through six different households and guardians across Los Angeles, Jersey City, and Detroit, he moved to Lansing and was adopted by age 10 by his working-class relatives. Starting formal work at 14, Anthony balanced part-time jobs with school and spent summers working full-time at a GM assembly plant. As his factory and others shuttered, he observed firsthand the devastating consequences of regional economic decline — urban decay, unemployment, drugs and crime — experiences that nurtured an intellectual curiosity about employment, entrepreneurship, ethnicity, poverty, inequality, and local economic development.

    Academic Studies: Despite these challenges, Anthony’s determination led him to enroll at a local community college before earning admission to Michigan State University. As a first-generation college student, he found mentorship and a supportive peer community that broadened his perspective and ignited his passion for learning and service. Transitioning from factory and janitorial jobs, he took on roles at a soup kitchen and the Refugee Development Center in Lansing. By senior year, he had raised his GPA from 2.1 to 3.5 and was hired as the lead instructor for a freshman service-learning course. Anthony went on to complete a Master’s degree in GIScience at MSU, grounding his quantitative training in spatial analysis and geographic information systems. His time at MSU equipped him with the intellectual tools to reconcile his past and use adversity as a driving force for growth, inspiring a lifelong commitment to public policy and research.

    UCLA: Anthony was selected for the UCLA Chancellor’s Prize and admitted to the top-ranked Geography department, where he earned his PhD. During his doctoral training, he also completed a Master’s degree in Statistics and enrolled in the advanced quantitative training program in the Political Science department, building deep expertise in causal inference, econometrics, and computational methods through advanced graduate coursework in statistics.

    Competitive Fellowships: Anthony’s language training and China fieldwork were supported by several nationally competitive fellowships, including a Foreign Language and Area Studies (FLAS) fellowship and a Critical Language Scholarship through the U.S. Department of State. These awards enabled intensive Mandarin Chinese study and sustained engagement with China’s research institutions, laying the groundwork for a decade-long program of field-based research.

    China Fulbright: Anthony was awarded a China Fulbright fellowship, posted to the Lincoln Institute of Urban Development and Land Policy in Beijing. During this period, he gained access to proprietary firm-level data and constructed measures of local industrial targeting initiatives by scraping public information from Chinese municipality websites, integrating these measures with firm-level data to investigate the implications of industrial policy on firm performance. He was also invited to participate in the China Household Ethnic Survey project (CHES), a significant initiative gathering international experts to collect and analyze the country’s first and only representative micro-data on China’s ethnic minority groups.

    Peking University: Anthony joined the School of Economics at Peking University, China’s flagship institution, as a faculty member, eventually being promoted from Assistant to Associate Professor. His tenure at PKU catalyzed a decade-long research agenda on China’s competitiveness policy, firm innovation, productivity, and internationalization. During this period, he won multiple teaching and research awards, including from the National Science Foundation of China.

    International Experience

    Peking University: The indelible impact of Anthony's tenure as a faculty member at Peking University catalyzed a decade-long research agenda on China's competitiveness policy, firm innovation, productivity, and internationalization. During his tenure, he won multiple teaching and research awards, including from the prestigious National Science Foundation of China. Capitalizing on PKU's proximity to Zhongguancun — often referred to as China's "Silicon Valley" — Anthony immersed himself in Beijing's tech ecosystem. Through his position at PKU, he secured co-working space in Garage Cafe, a publicly-funded incubator on Innovation Way, witnessing firsthand the transformation of the area into a policy-induced innovation hub. Anthony also served in an advisory role for a student-led start-up company, and collaborated with partners at the Ministry of Science and Technology on international projects that fostered exchanges between start-ups in Silicon Valley and Zhongguancun.

    International Service: Driven in part by a desire to escape his socioeconomic and geographical constraints, Anthony developed a strong interest at MSU to contribute to global community development. Through luck and determination, he secured scholarships that allowed him to volunteer, research and live abroad, accruing unique real-world experiences that greatly enhanced his traditional academic studies. His global service projects spanned volunteering at a local economic development office in rural Ireland and multiple NGOs operating in impoverished neighborhoods in southern and central Mexico.

    International Fieldwork: Anthony began his research career as an undergraduate student at MSU. He obtained a research grant to visit the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, where he designed and implemented his first survey instrument at a migrant skills-enhancement facility. For his Master's thesis, Anthony combined several grants to conduct in-depth fieldwork in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, one of China's most restive and difficult to access regions. Informed by a mixed-methods design, he identified local contacts, trained local enumerators, and designed a statistical sampling framework representative of urban service establishments in Urumqi and Kashgar, collecting nearly 2,000 surveys of Han, Hui, and Uyghur respondents. His research findings were among the first to shed light on ethnic-based disparities in wages, self-employment, and mobility in the Chinese context.

    China Fulbright: Anthony was awarded a China Fulbright fellowship to conduct dissertation research on China's competitiveness policy, innovation and entrepreneurship. During this period, he gained access to proprietary firm-level data. Harnessing his linguistic and statistical expertise, he constructed measures of local industrial targeting initiatives by scraping public information from Chinese municipality websites and integrated these measures with firm-level data to investigate the implications of industrial policy on firm performance. He was also invited to participate in the China Household Ethnic Survey project (CHES), a significant initiative gathering a select group of international experts to join Chinese counterparts to collect and analyze the country's first and only representative micro-data on China's ethnic minority groups.